Global News Affecting Canada (October 6, 2025)

1. Canada shifts its federal budget timelineThe Canadian government announced it will now release its main federal budget in the autumn rather than spring, starting with November 4 this year. The change is intended to improve predictability, align spending with construction seasons, and better distinguish between operational and capital expenditures.

2. Canadian stock futures rise on global optimism and commodity strengthFutures tied to the Toronto Stock Exchange rose ~0.3%, supported by positive momentum on Wall Street and stronger commodity prices (especially oil and metals). The rally underscores how Canada’s markets are sensitive to global financial trends.

3. Prime Minister Carney to meet U.S. President Trump (Oct 7)Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet Donald Trump, focusing on economic and security topics. A key agenda is persuading the U.S. to remove tariffs on Canadian goods and advancing the review of the USMCA trade agreement.

4. Canadian dollar weakens amid manufacturing slumpThe loonie has weakened to near four-month lows, as data show Canada’s manufacturing sector is contracting. This has fueled market expectations that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again at its October meeting.

5. U.S. spirits exports to Canada plungeAmerican spirits exports to Canada dropped by 85% in Q2 2025, largely attributed to trade tensions and tariffs. Even though Canada recently lifted its retaliatory tariff, many U.S. spirits remain off shelves in Canadian provinces.

6. Exposure to foreign monetary shocksA new academic study finds that Canada is sensitive to interest-rate changes abroad (especially from Europe). An ECB rate hike tends to weaken the Canadian dollar and depress economic activity, primarily via trade and commodity channels.